Monitoring the escalation in the Iran War and who controls the Strait (as they win the war)
The Iran War was initiated by the US and Israel on the 28th of February. Initial military objectives remain opaque, however currently only one thing truly matters: Control of the Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran remains in control over the Strait, the US will be deemed to have lost the war. Despite posturing and rhetoric to the contrary.
To monitor this we track the number of attacks from Iran (or its allies) - as their ability to strike also enables them to threaten the Strait and thereby influence global markets.
Furthermore, we monitor actual shipping activity near the Strait as well as economic risk proxies such as the BDTI and oil spreads, which reflect the economic friction caused by the conflict.
Casualties are also tracked, although with a lag of 24-48h due to the reporting lag.
Iran's continued control of the Strait will have impact on global inflation and thereby GDP growth. Every sustained 10% rise in oil prices reduces global GDP by 0.2% and adds 25 basis points to headline inflation.
The goal is simple: provide a transparent, near real-time data driven view on the conflict. It will help us tell the outcome of the war, and therefore impact on the market.
Contact us if you have suggestions.
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About, Methodology & SourcesA multi-factor composite index measuring theater intensity. Values > above 1 signal active escalation; while values below -1 indicate significant cooling. The score integrates four pillars: Kinetics (launch acceleration), Maritime Friction (VLCC passing through Hormuz), Energy Risk (spread between Murban and Brent Crude) and Economic Cost of shipping (log changes in BDTI). This hybrid Z-score approach balances physical battlefield tempo with global market stress to provide a timely indicator of escalation or de-escalation. Most recent observation updates intraday as new data arrives (every 30 minutes)
It's been quiet on the site with updates. Cease fire has still been in effect, well... kinda. Israel attacked Lebanon still occassionally but between Iran and US/Israel it was mostly a war of words. Trump occassionally tweets some half-truths, Iran posts some defiant messages and their might be talks (or not). That was effectively the last two weeks summed up.
However, what has been relevant is the complete standstill in Hormuz. Not neglecting all the casualties but as mentioned in header here; Hormuz is what matters to the global economy/markets. Since Iran affiliated ships are also blocked the flows are even lower than during heaviest part of the war. What should be noted is that more ships have turned off AIS and some are making it through but these cannot be tracked, on purpose. These numbers are extremely low though.
Alternatives for Hormuz will be found but this comes at a price. MSC, largest container shipping company, has constructed a land route but this is not as efficient as with ships. Pipeline of Saudi Arabia has already been maxed out since the middle of the war. As such, we need to worry more about long-term impacts and second order effects for the global economy than the higher gas prices what drives news now. Agricultural commodities are rising and will rise more. Following that livestock prices will increase. Virtually all consumer goods will be impacted due to more expensive shipping and energy prices. This has not hit headline numbers... yet.
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Ship count (of which sanctioned), change vs previous 24-hour window (sanctioned change).
Vessel transit estimates are derived from AIS position snapshots. A vessel is counted as a chokepoint transit when sequential positions are observed on opposite sides of a defined geofence surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Erroneous data is filtered out based on geo data.
Strikes originating from Iran (or its allies) on a daily basis, also when origin is not confirmed. All hits are assumed to be by Iran.
Military Deaths
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Civilian Deaths
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Total Deaths
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Injuries
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Military Deaths
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Civilian Deaths
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Total Deaths
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Injuries
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Value in brackets is the increase from the previous day's report.
Source: Casualty data is aggregated daily from official and semi-official reports, including MoH (Lebanon/Gaza), HRANA/Hengaw (Iran), IDF/Magen David Adom (Israel), and US Pentagon updates. Figures represent a combination of confirmed combatant losses and reported non-combatant fatalities; due to the speed of kinetic events, reporting lags of 24-48 hours are common for remote strike zones. Data can be revised as new information emerges, and may not capture all casualties, especially in contested areas. The charts above show daily reported casualties, which can fluctuate based on reporting cadence and access to affected regions.
The Murban-Brent spread reflects the geopolitical risk of the Gulf. Sharp changes can signal rising tanker risk and geopolitical stress as markets price in potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Tracking the daily cost of crude oil shipping via the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index. This primarily tracks Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) which carry heavy crude oil. Therefore good proxy. Also reflects hidden costs such as insurance, fuel and security premia.
Max unique countries/territories targeted per day. A spike here indicates conflict horizontal expansion.