Alternative data sources: Polymarket sentiment and Bab Al-Mandeb maritime monitoring
This page provides a deep dive into the alternative data sources we use to track the Iran War escalation. We cover our Polymarket tracking methodology, which captures real-time market sentiment on key conflict outcomes, as well as our analysis of maritime traffic through the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
By monitoring these unconventional indicators, we aim to provide a more nuanced and timely picture of the conflict dynamics beyond traditional news reporting.
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Value in brackets is the difference vs. the previous 24-hour window.
Vessel transit estimates are derived from AIS position snapshots. A vessel is counted as a chokepoint transit when sequential positions are observed on opposite sides of a defined geofence surrounding the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. Erroneous data is filtered out based on geo data.